Bush by a nose?
That's the conclusion of this article about polling. Essentially it says take all the results and average them together and that's whatr you get. - Bush winning by anose. But then, that's if the election was held today - and damn! In Florida and others states it IS being held today!
Essentially this article about polling says that the different results we are seeing from different polls are caused by different mystical formulas used to calculate who is LIKELY to vote. If you look at the raw data - results among all registered voters - the election comes out to be nearly a dead heat in ALL polls.
And that adds the prospect of a polling organization trying to influence the election by giving results that it thinks will favor its candidate. Of course, they all deny this - but then, if we're to have absolute faith in polling organizations, then we get what we deserve.
But what about the places where they are already voting? Like Florida? That bugs me - not simply because there are already all sorts of legitimate complaints coming from there, but because so many people are voting early in an election that changes day-to-day.
Today's news - any day's news - may bring the information that tips this election one way or the other. Hell, if the Red Sox pull of the miracle of all miracles and come from a 3-0 deficit to beat the Yankees 4-3 (and they're half-way there now) then some people will take that as a signt hat John Kerry is destined to win and jump on the bandwagon. Imean, afterall, the Patriots have the longest winning streak in history going. So if these two Massachusetts teams are destined to win, then why not the Massachusetts senator?
You laugh - but when things are this close I get the feeling that any little thing can tip the scales. Certainly this bit about Cheney's daughter - hardly in earth-shaking consequence - is such an example.
Posted by Greg Stone at October 19, 2004 05:40 AM