US and the World

Polls and reality

The New York Times > Washington > Campaign 2004 > Voters: As Deadlines Hit, Rolls of Voters Show Big Surge

The latest Gallup Poll - which at one point had Bush at least 13 points ahead - has it a dead heat now 49/49. Good. But the polls may not tell the whole picture. The big, unaswered questions this year include:

1. Are they counting young voters who use cellphones exklusively? No - at least not directly. So this is one of those wiggle figures.

2, How much impact will there be from all these rgeistrations drives? Will the Dems get out the vote when push comes to shove and will the Repubs be able to mount enough underhanded tricks to disqualify significant numbers of new voters? (A little prejudice in that question - but that's the story all the news reports are showing. The Bushies care little for freedom and democracy if it means they might lose power. )

3. Will the damned voting machines work?

4. And the biggest question - will the terrorists do something horrific and if they do, what will ve the impact on the elections? (I can imagine so many scenarios here it's simply useless to consider.)

None of this is calculable and all of it could have a tremendous impact - and the most important aspects are out of th ehands of the candidates. (Though if I were running a campaign I would have some small group working right now on how the candidate should react to a terrorist attack - not to mention something like the suddenc apture of bin Laden.)

Bottom line - the polls are interesting. They are even heartening when they go the way you want. But no one should take them too seriously no matter what they say.