US and the World

The sleeze swifties appear to have hit home big time

WH2004: General

You're going to hear a lot about a new poll that gives Bush a 10-point margin - and I'm afraid it may be more accurate than people want to think. (I saw CNN News last night doing a bit on this as if it was the ONLY recent poll - which it isn't.) But it is interesting to see the three most recent - all taken just before the convention - polls and see how the question asked differed and how the results differ - big time. However, no results are good news for Kerry.

And check out the current electoral vote predictor - it has been showing Kerry in the lead - it now shows Bush winning 270-252!

Poll 1 - Time:

Time Poll conducted by SRBI Public Affairs. Aug. 31-Sept. 2, 2004. N=1,128 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3), 926 likely voters (MoE ± 4).

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"Suppose the 2004 election for president were being held today, and you had to choose between John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats, and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans. For whom would you vote?" If undecided: "Even though you haven't made up your mind yet, do you lean more toward supporting Kerry or Bush?"

Result: 53-43 Bush

Oll 2 - Zogby

Doesn't show question. Result is:

46-44 Bush

BUT - when asked: ""Do you think George W. Bush deserves to be reelected as president of the United States, or is it time for someone new?" the result is:

46 say he deserves re-election and 48 say no!

And The American Research Group poll asked:

"If the election for president were being held between George W. Bush, the Republican, and John Kerry, the Democrat, for whom would you vote: Bush or Kerry?"

And got 48 for Bush, 47 for Kerry.

This is going to make the post-Convention pollos - which are being taken right now - very interesting. This looks like a Swift Boat bounce for Bush - at least it's hard to identify any other erason, although I've seen polls where folks claim that meant nothing to them. Follow that up with the convention and I predict that more polls are going to be showing a 10-point margin or better for Bush. Any smaller margin will be good news for Kerry - but not very good news. He has always been just leading, but within the margin of error. Now the position is reversed - or worse.

I also suspect this is why there is talk of a shake-up in the Kerry campaign and why they just made ahuge TV buy.