What do they know?
The New York Times > Washington > Bin Laden Is Said to Be Organizing for a U.S. Attack
I'm assuming that if you pay $30 billion or so each year for an intelligence operation, then the information you get is better than what I can imagine, since I have no special knowledge of what's going on.
But honestly, read any of the stories from yesterday's grandstanding by Ridge and Cheney and you have to wonder what the vast sums we pay for "intelligence" buys us. As i read these stories I am hard pressed to find a single useful or verifiable fact. What's more the speculation they raise - that Al Qaeda is planning an atack some time this year some where in the United States and that this operation is being directed by Osama bin laden from his moountain hideout - well, couldn't any of us make the same guess?
I find this speculation reasonable. What is disturbing is we don't seem to have anything more than this speculation. In fact, this warning seems hardly as specific as the warnings the President ignored in the summer of 2001.
Are we being yanked around again? Is the news media playing into the hands of the administration's political goals? Boosting this story in an attempt to bury the story of Kerry's VP announcement? Maybe. That speculation is certainly as logical and as fact based as the speculation that there could be an attack on the US "this year."
And why aren't more of the media paying attention to the facts - and these can be verified - that Kerry raised once more on Larry King Live last night? What Kerry said is simple. We had bin Laden trapped in the fall of 2001 and in an absolutely incredible move we turned his capture over to the same Afghan forces that just the week before had been opposing us. (BTW - I think Kerry came across much better in this talk show interview format than he does making stump speeches. His campaign should seek more of these.)
In other words, Bush, Cheney, and Rumsefeld, for all their bluster about terrorism, totally blew the war on terrorism. When the critical moment came, they blinked. They tried to take the easy way out and not risk US troops on the ground - even though we had our best troops in the region. And then they went and put 10 times as many troops into Iraq which, if anything, sent recruit flooding to bin Laden and weakened our own Army.
So now they are trying to raise political capital by scaring us once more with a potential terrorist attack led by the very same person they let escape? The nicest thing you can say about that kind of leadership is it's stupid and counter-productive.
Oh - and one more thing. Josh Marshall ( Talking Points Memo) among others, points to some really scary maneuverings. They think that Pakistan will announce the capture of some high level Al Qaeda types - maybe even bin laden - during the Democratic national Convention this month. In fact, they have "intelligence" thatindicates that the administration has urged Pakistan to do just this, contorlling the timing of any announcement.
Uh huh. Maybe. That kind of speculation seems to be based on information that is about as reliable as - well, as the intelligence that makes us think there is going to be a terrorist attack this year.
And if you think we're prepared for such an attack, think again. All you need to do is look at that incident during the Reagan funeral where they emptied Congress because they could NOT intercept an unknown plane heading for Washington, DC. There was a similar incident in New York earlier this spring.
bototm line: I think both scenarios are likely. A terrorist attack is a good bet and some sort of anti-terrorist success is likely to be announced during or near the Democratic Convention.
And if you want to speculate more, isn't yesterday's announcement a perfect way to set us up for the announcement from Pakistan?
Oh look, there's a terrible attack coming. Oh look, we foiled it just in time.
Though I must say, it's likely an attack is coming and it's also likely that it won't be foiled, even if we capture bin Laden - in fact, even if Pakistan has already captured bin Laden already and is just controlling the timing of an announcement.
Ain't "intelligence" wonderful. All of us can speculate all we want and for free and all our speculation is equally valid - or invalid - as events may prove.
